Methods to Forecast Hierarchical Time Sequence | by Dr. Robert Kübler | Aug, 2024

A newbie’s information to forecast reconciliation

Picture by Krista Mangulsone on Unsplash

Think about you’re an information scientist at a captivating little pet store specializing in simply 5 merchandise: two styles of cat meals and three forms of pet food. Your mission? To assist this small enterprise flourish by precisely forecasting the weekly gross sales for every product. The objective is to supply a complete gross sales forecast — complete gross sales, in addition to detailed predictions for cat meals and pet food gross sales, and even particular person product gross sales.

The Knowledge

You will have knowledge on the gross sales of the several types of cat meals A and B, in addition to the several types of pet food C, D, and E for 200 days. Fortunate for us, the information is exceptionally clear, with no lacking values, and no outliers. Additionally, there’s no development. It appears like this:

Picture by the writer.

Word: I generated the information myself.

Along with the person gross sales, we even have the aggregated gross sales for all cat meals merchandise, all pet food merchandise, and all merchandise. We name such a group of time collection hierarchical time collection. In our case, they respect the next gross sales hierarchy: