Understanding the Limitations of ARIMA Forecasting | by Khin Yadanar Lin | Aug, 2024

A comparability between the SARIMA mannequin and the Fb Prophet mannequin

Photograph by Maksym Ostrozhynskyy on Unsplash

Time Sequence Forecasting has lengthy been a significant software for making predictions in companies, particularly earlier than the rise of Machine Studying (ML). It performs an vital function in areas equivalent to useful resource allocation, stock administration, and price range planning. Usually, forecasting is described as a mix of artwork and science as a result of it requires each technical understanding and human instinct and judgement.

Amongst time collection forecasting methods, ARIMA (Auto Regressive Built-in Shifting Common) has been one of the vital widespread strategies, initially developed by George Field and Gwilym Jenkins in 1970. Nonetheless, regardless of its recognition, ARIMA has sure drawbacks. This text goals to match the efficiency of ARIMA with the Prophet mannequin, developed by Fb, whereas highlighting the…